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Información tecnológica

versión On-line ISSN 0718-0764

Resumen

OSORNO-CARDONA, Yurany A.; MEJIA-GIRALDO, Diego A.  y  MUNOZ-GALEANO, Nicolás. Methodology for the stimation of Firm Energy through Desacopled Hidrical Synthetic Series. Inf. tecnol. [online]. 2018, vol.29, n.5, pp.35-46. ISSN 0718-0764.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-07642018000500035.

This paper proposes a variant of the Colombian official methodology employed in the computation of firm energy (FE) produced by hydro power plants (MCREG). Firm energy is defined as the maximum electrical energy that a plant is able to continuously deliver under low hydrological conditions. This research establishes that for determining the FE, hydrological series should be annually decoupled in the MCREG optimization model to avoid the assumption that future hydrological events will occur in the same historical chronological order. Time series are randomly generated through multivariate and correlated normal distributions, whose parameters are estimated from historical inflow data. Additionally, it is also possible to model the intertemporal correlation between monthly inflows of hydro power plants. The proposed methodology (abbreviated as MDEF) is compared with MCREG. This comparison was done for two power plants (338 and 1000 MW) and the results indicate that EF obtained with MDEF is higher and less uncertain if a significant number of time series is considered.

Palabras clave : water inflows; multivariate normal distribution; firm energy; hydro generation; inflow time series.

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