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Revista de ciencia política (Santiago)

On-line version ISSN 0718-090X

Abstract

LAUTARO ROSAL, RENZO. Scenarios of political fragility, political balance: Guatemala 2010-2011. Rev. cienc. polít. (Santiago) [online]. 2012, vol.32, n.1, pp.171-191. ISSN 0718-090X.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2012000100009.

In 2010 and 2011, the Guatemalan democracy experienced processes which hampered governance. Both years accounted for the second part of the Government headed by the engineer Álvaro Colom. The initial expectation of alleged Government guidance became its rapid weakening. Social programs, the initial strategy of his management, led to a patronage. The interest of the presidents Colom ex wife in participating in elections in late 2011 and the subsequent "presidential divorce" meant a greater degree of wear and loss of credibility of the Government. The advancement of the electoral process, the weakness of the Supreme Electoral Court (Tribunal Supremo Electoral), the continuity of thefragile system, ofpolitical parties, excessive and opaque private campaign financing linked to organized crime, sparked a paradigmatic electoral process. Political Parties choices represented a reduced spectrum, conservative and dominated by authoritarian options. In a economic level, although the country was not affected by the effects of the global economic crisis, the weakening in the management of public finances, the increase in the public debt to levels never before known and the consequences of the series of natural disasters that occurred annually as a result of climate change, generated a complex scenario with serious consequences to the following Governments. Levels ofcrime and violence remained high in Guatemala, just below Honduras and El Salvador. The presence oforganized crime and in particular drug trafficking networks was even throughout the country. The 2011 were held in a climate ofweak electoral institutions, high levels ofelectoral violence and a struggle between cartels for territorial control, highlighting the advance of los Zeta organized crime group.

Keywords : Democracy; crime; poverty; economic stability; political parties; impunity; narcos; corruption; elections.

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