SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.38 número1Sistemas productivos, parámetros técnicos y calidad de leche bovina de productores del sur de Chile índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Servicios Personalizados

Revista

Articulo

Indicadores

Links relacionados

Compartir


Ciencia e investigación agraria

versión On-line ISSN 0718-1620

Resumen

VALDES, Rodrigo; VON CRAMON-TAUBADEL, Stephan  y  DIAZ, José. Market integration for Chilean wheat prices using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), a cointegration analysis: análisis de cointegración. Cienc. Inv. Agr. [online]. 2011, vol.38, n.1, pp.5-14. ISSN 0718-1620.  http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-16202011000100001.

Historically Chile has been a wheat net importer country. This situation, added to the small size of its economy, causes that the domestic price of this cereal is highly influenced by import prices of substitute wheat. This research analyzed the integration level of the Chilean wheat market with respect to the USA and Argentinean markets using a vector error correction model (VECM), the impact of the band prices (D-BAND) and the change of the band mechanism introduced in 2004 (D-MECH) by the inclusion of two binary variables in the VECM. The results showed strong market integration among Argentina, Chile and USA, with USA leading the market. Additionally, the price of the Chilean wheat was influenced by the USA and Argentina prices. The binary variables, included in the models, showed that this system had been useful to protect the domestic market by reducing the fluctuations of the wheat prices (D-BAND), and the new mechanism performs as a protection over the international fluctuations (D-MECH). Both coefficients presented non-significative values, probably due to the difference among the input cost and the domestic price support mechanism, the sub-valuated commodities markets, increment on cereal price levels, inflationary scenarios and low number of observations.

Palabras clave : Cointegration analysis; price band; wheat; cereal prices; international market of commodities; vector error correction model.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Inglés     · Inglés ( pdf )

 

Creative Commons License Todo el contenido de esta revista, excepto dónde está identificado, está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons