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Estudios de economía

versión On-line ISSN 0718-5286

Estudios de Economía vol.47 no.2 Santiago dic. 2020

http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-52862020000200157 

Artículos

The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports: a panel VAR analysis

El impacto de la incertidumbre del tipo de cambio sobre las exportaciones: un análisis de panel VAR

Leonel Muinelo-Gallo1 

Ronald Miranda Lescano1 

Gabriela Mordecki1 

1Instituto de Economía, Universidad de la República. Uruguay

Abstract:

In this paper we analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on export flows among a panel of 27 countries throughout the 1994/01-2014/12 period. In order to do this, we apply a panel vector autoregressive model approach. By dividing the panel into two subgroups that involve manufacturing-exporting and commodity-exporting economies, we observe a different effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. This has a negative impact in manufacturing-exporting countries, but does not affect commodity exporting countries. This result appears to be explained by countries’ economics characteristics, involving the flexibility or rigidities of the export adjustment arising exchange rate uncertainty.

Keywords: Exchange rate uncertainty; exports; panel vector autoregressive; manufacture-exporting economies; commodity-exporting economies

Resumen:

En este artículo analizamos el impacto de la incertidumbre del tipo de cambio sobre los flujos de exportaciones en un panel de 27 países durante el período 1994/01-2014/12. Para ello, aplicamos un enfoque de vectores autoregresivos con datos panel. Dividiendo el panel en dos subgrupos que incluyen economías exportadoras de manufactureras y economías exportadoras de productos básicos, observamos un efecto diferencial de la incertidumbre del tipo de cambio sobre las exportaciones. Esta incertidumbre tiene un impacto negativo en los países exportadores de manufacturas, pero no afecta de forma significativa a los países exportadores de productos básicos. Este resultado parece explicarse por las características económicas de los países, las cuales involucran la flexibilidad o rigidez del ajuste de las exportaciones a la incertidumbre del tipo de cambio.

Palabras clave: Incertidumbre del tipo de cambio; exportaciones; panel de vectores autorregresivos; economías exportadoras de manufacturas; economías exportadoras de productos básicos

Full text available only in PDF format.

Texto completo disponible sólo en PDF.

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Received: October 0, 2019; Accepted: May 0, 2020

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