SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.47 número2El impacto de la incertidumbre del tipo de cambio sobre las exportaciones: un análisis de panel VAREfectos derrame de la complejidad económica en las tasas de crecimiento del PIB per cápita de los estados Mexicanos, 1993-2013 índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Servicios Personalizados

Revista

Articulo

Indicadores

Links relacionados

  • En proceso de indezaciónCitado por Google
  • No hay articulos similaresSimilares en SciELO
  • En proceso de indezaciónSimilares en Google

Compartir


Estudios de economía

versión On-line ISSN 0718-5286

Estudios de Economía vol.47 no.2 Santiago dic. 2020

http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-52862020000200193 

Artículos

A sensitivity analysis on the impact of regional trade agreements in bilateral trade flows

Un análisis de sensibilidad sobre el impacto de los acuerdos comerciales regionales en los flujos bilaterales de comercio

Jaime Ahcar-Olmos1 

David Rodríguez-Barco1 

1Faculty of Economics Sciences, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana-Cali. Cali, Colombia

Abstract:

We estimate the effect of RTAs on bilateral exports by means of a gravity model analyzing its sensitivity to different specifications and methods. RTAs generate a sizable positive effect. However, shifting to country-pair and time-varying fixed effects systematically reduces coefficients. Nevertheless, the RTA effect is consistent across methods and specifications. The RTA effect attributable to particular trade agreements displays high variability. While most RTAs increase trade, others present non-significant or negative results. We apply robustness checks to individual RTA estimates by presenting PPML time-invariant fixed effects and next to these, country-pair and time-varying fixed effects estimates. Thus, 38.2% of RTAs are positive and significant in both specifications. RTAs trade creation effects tend to prevail over trade diversion effects.

Keywords: International Trade; Trade Liberalization; Regional Trade Agreements RTA; Gravity Model; Economic Integration

Resumen:

En este artículo estimamos, mediante un modelo de gravedad, el efecto de los Acuerdos Comerciales Regionales (ACR) en las exportaciones bilaterales, y realizamos un cuidadoso análisis de sensibilidad, considerando diferentes métodos y especificaciones. Los ACR presentan, por lo general, un efecto positivo considerable. Este impacto se reduce substancialmente al incluir efectos fijos país variables en el tiempo y efectos fijos individuales. No obstante, el efecto de los ACR es consistente a través de los métodos y especificaciones aplicados. Cuando el impacto de los ACR es calculado para cada acuerdo en particular, los coeficientes presentan una alta variabilidad. La mayoría de ACR presenta un impacto positivo. Otros presentan resultados no significativos o negativos. Para una mayor robustez de los resultados, los impactos de los ACR particulares fueron estimados con efectos fijos invariables en tiempo, y también con efectos fijos variables en el tiempo bajo el método de PPML. Así, el 38,2% de los ACR son positivos y significativos en ambas especificaciones. A su vez, los efectos de creación de comercio tienden a prevalecer sobre los efectos de desviación del comercio.

Palabras clave: Comercio Internacional; liberalización económica; Acuerdos Comerciales Regionales ACR; modelo de gravedad; integración económica

Full text available only in PDF format.

Texto completo disponible sólo en PDF.

Bibliographic references

Afesorgbor, S.K.(2017). "Revisiting the effect of regional integration on African trade: evidence from meta-analysis and gravity model". Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. 26 (2), 133-153. [ Links ]

Ahcar, J., Siroën, J.M.(2017). "Deep Integration: Considering the Heterogeneity of Free Trade Agreements". Journal of Economic Integration. 32 (3), 615-659. [ Links ]

Anderson, J.E.(1979). "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation". American Economic Review. 69 (1), 106-116. [ Links ]

Anderson, J., Van Wincoop, E.(2003). "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle". The American Economic Review. 93 (1), 170-192. [ Links ]

Antonucci, D., Manzocchi, S.(2006). "Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?". Economic Systems. 30 (2), 157-169. [ Links ]

Arellano, M., Bond , S.(1991). "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data". Review of Economic Studies. 58 (2), 277-297. [ Links ]

Baier, S., Bergstrand, J.(2007). "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?". Journal of International Economics. 60 (1), 72-95. [ Links ]

Baier, S., Bergstrand, J., Clance, M.(2018). "Heterogeneous effects of economic integration agreements". Journal of Development Economics. 135 , 587-608. [ Links ]

Baier, S., Yotov, Y., Zylkinc, T.(2019). "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration". Journal of International Economics. 116 , 206-226. [ Links ]

Baldwin, R., Jaimovich, D.(2012). "Are free trade agreements contagious?". Journal of International Economics. 88 (1), 1-16. [ Links ]

Baldwin, R., Taglioni, D. (2006). Gravity for dummies and dummies for gravity equation . 12516. NBER. [ Links ]

Bas, M., Ledezma, I.(2010). "Trade integration and within-plant productiv-ity evolution in Chile". Review of World Economics. 146 (1), 113-146. [ Links ]

Bussière, M., Schnatz, B.(2009). "Evaluating China’s Integration in World Trade with a Gravity Model Based Benchmark". Open Economies Review. 20 (1), 85-111. [ Links ]

Breusch, T., Pagan, A.(1980). "The Lagrange multiplier test and its appli-cations to model specification in econometrics". Review of Economic Studies. 47 (1), 239-253. [ Links ]

Caporale, G.M., Rault, C., Sova, R., Sova, A.(2012). "European free trade agreements and trade balance: Evidence from four new European Union members". Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. 21 (6), 839-863. Recuperado de https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2011.555562Links ]

Correia, S., Guimarães, P., Zylkin, T. (2019). PPMLHDFE: Fast pois-son estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects . arXiv preprint . [ Links ]

De Benedictis, L., Taglioni, D.T. (2011). The gravity model in international trade . En De Benedictis, ., Salvatici, L (eds.);The Trade Impact of European Union Preferential Policies. (55-89). Berlin Heidelberg: Springer [ Links ]

De Sousa, J.(2012). "The currency union effect on trade is decreasing over time". Economics Letters. 117 (3), 917- 920. [ Links ]

Didia, D., Nica, M., Yu, G.(2015). "The gravity model, African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and US trade relations with sub-Saharan Africa". Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. 24 (8), 1130-1151. Recuperado de https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2014.1000942Links ]

Dür, A., Baccini, L., Elsig, M.(2014). "The design of international trade agreements: Introducing a new dataset". The Review of International Organizations. 9 (3), 353-375. [ Links ]

Egger, P., Nigai, S. (2015). Effects of deep versus shallow trade agreements in general equilibrium . En Dür, A., Elsig, M (eds.);Trade Cooperation: The Purpose, Design and Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements . (374-391).: Cambridge University Press [ Links ]

Eicher, T., Henn, C.(2011). "n search of WTO trade effects: Preferential trade agreements promote trade strongly, but unevenly". Journal of International Economics. 83 (2), 137-153. [ Links ]

Eicher, T., Henn, C., Papageorgiou, C.(2012). "Trade creation and diversion revisited: Accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects". Journal of Applied Economics. 27 (2), 296-321. [ Links ]

Fally, T.(2015). "Structural gravity and fixed effects". Journal of International Economics. 97 (1), 76-85. [ Links ]

Ghosh, S., Yamarik, S.(2004). "Are regional trading arrangements trade creat-ing? An application of extreme bounds analysis". Journal of International Economics. 63 (2), 369-395. [ Links ]

Greene, W. (2011). Econometric Analysis . : Harlow: Pearson Education [ Links ]

Hayakawa, K., Kimura, F.(2015). "How Much Do Free Trade Agreements Reduce Impediments to Trade?". Open Economies Review. 26 (4), 711-729. [ Links ]

Head, K., Mayer, T. (2014). Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook . En Gopinath , G., Helpman , ., Rogoff , (eds.);Handbook of International Economics. (131-195). [ Links ]

Head, K., Mayer, T., Ries, J.(2010). "The Erosion of colonial linkages after Independence". Journal of International Economics. 81 (1), 1-14. [ Links ]

Halpern, L., Koren, M., Szeidl, A.(2015). "Imported inputs and Productivity". American Economic Review. 105 (12), 3660-3703. [ Links ]

Hsiao, Ch., (2003). Analysis of Panel Data . : Cambridge University Press [ Links ]

Kahouli, B., Maktouf, S.(2015). "Trade creation and diversion effects in the Mediterranean area: Econometric analysis by gravity model". Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. 24 (1), 76-104. [ Links ]

Kim, M.H.(2011). "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Revisited". Global Economy Journal. 11 (2). Recuperado de https://doi.org/10.2202/1524-5861.1728Links ]

Kohl, T.(2014). "Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade?". Review of World Economics. 150 (3), 443-469. [ Links ]

Kohl, T., Brakman, S., Garretsen, H.(2016). "Do trade agreements stimulate international trade differently? Evidence from 296 trade agreements". The World Economy. 39 (1), 97-131. [ Links ]

Larch, M., Wanner, J., Yotov, Y.V., Zylkin, T.(2019). "Currency Unions and Trade: A PPML Re-assessment with High-dimensional Fixed Effects". Oxf Bull Econ Stat. 81 , 487-510. Recuperado de https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12283Links ]

Magee, C.(2008). "New measures of trade creation and trade diversion". Journal of International Economics. 75 (2), 349-362. [ Links ]

Martin-Mayoral, F., Morán Carofilis, G., Cajas Guijarro, J.(2016). "The effects of integration agreements in Western Hemisphere trade, 1970-2014". Journal of International Trade and Economic Development. 25 (5), 724-756. [ Links ]

Martín-Montaner, J., Requena, F., Serrano, G.(2014). "International trade and migrant networks: Is It really about qualifications?". Estudios de Economía. 41 (2), 251-260. [ Links ]

Martínez-Zarzoso, I.(2013). "The log of gravity revisited". Applied Economics. 45 (3), 311-327. [ Links ]

Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Nowak-Lehmann, F., Horsewood, N.(2009). "Are regional trading agreements beneficial? Static and dynamic panel gravity models". North American Journal of Economics and Finance. 20 , 46-65. [ Links ]

Melitz, J., Toubal, F.(2014). "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade". Journal of International Economics. 93 (2), 351-363. [ Links ]

Mitze, T. (2010). Estimating Gravity Model of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not to IV? . 23540. MPRA. [ Links ]

Montenegro, C., Pereira, M., Soloaga, I.(2011). "El efecto de China en el comercio internacional de América Latina". Estudios de Economía. 38 (2), 341-368. Recuperado de https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-52862011000200001Links ]

Rose, A.(2005). "Which international institution promote international trade?". Review of International Economics. 13 (4), 682-698. [ Links ]

Sachs, J., Warner, A., Aslund, A., Fischer, S.(1995). "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration". Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. (1), 1-118. [ Links ]

Santos Silva, J., Tenreyro, S.(2006). "The log of gravity". Review of Economics and Statistics. 88 (4), 641-658. [ Links ]

Santos Silva, J., Tenreyro, S.(2011). "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator". Econ Lett. 112 (2), 220-222. [ Links ]

Subramanian, A., Wei, S.(2007). "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly". Journal of International Economics. 72 (1), 151-175. [ Links ]

Swamy, P., Tavlas, G., Hall, S. (2015). "On the interpretation of instrumental variables in the presence of specification errors". Econometrics. 3 (1), 55-64. [ Links ]

Trefler, D.(1993). "Trade liberalization and the theory of endogenous protec-tion: an econometric study of U.S. import policy". J Polit Econ. 101 (1), 138-160. [ Links ]

Wacziarg, R., Welch, K.(2008). "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence". World Bank Econ Rev. 22 (2), 187-231. [ Links ]

Wooldridge, J., (2012). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach” . : Cengage Learning. [ Links ]

Received: November 0, 2019; Accepted: April 0, 2020

Creative Commons License Este es un artículo publicado en acceso abierto bajo una licencia Creative Commons